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Peak oil

The world relies on it and 'it' is running out!

Submitted 10/23/2006 By trappleton Views 106893 Comments 9 Updated 1/18/2007

 


Photographer : Deposto

It is one of the most sought-after resources on the planet. It is used in everything from petrol to plastics, and is so valuable that it has been called “black gold.” “It” is crude oil, and it is running out.

The world’s industry, transportation and commerce rely on oil, so it’s only natural that we use a lot of it. Unfortunately, in recent years, we’ve been consuming much more oil than we’ve been discovering. For this reason, some scientists suggest that we may have hit “peak oil.”

What is it?

“Peak oil” is the point at which we consume more petroleum per year than we produce, and when peak oil happens worldwide, it will no longer even be worth the time or money it takes to find new oil reserves.

You may be asking, “So what?” The truth is, peak oil could affect you more than you realise. The average Australian consumes six and a half litres of oil every day, three quarters of that being used for transportation.

What’s the worst part? Australia passed peak oil as a nation in 2000, and now imports 30% of all its oil. By 2010, it’s estimated that that figure will be closer to 50%.

It’s hard to say exactly what will happen once peak oil hits across the globe. Some scientists say that it will be the end of civilisation as we know it, while others claim there will really be no difference at all due to recent advances in energy technology.

The potential for disaster is certainly clear, even past the issue of petrol prices. In fact, refueling your car could be the least of your worries. Without cheap oil, the price of plastic, a petroleum product, would fly through the roof, affecting the prices of everything from computers to clothing. Since oil is used in the production of fertilizer, the same could happen to food prices. It’s easy to see how limited availability of oil could change every aspect of our lives.

Don’t panic!

But don’t fret just yet. No one can say exactly when peak oil will occur. Some scientists say it happened last year, while more optimistic estimates say sometime around 2015.

Not only that, but as the price of crude oil rises, other, traditionally harder methods of oil extraction become more cost-effective. After crude oil, a rock called “oil shale” is one of the most plentiful sources of petroleum in the world. The United States Energy Information Administration believes the world supply of oil shale to be 2.6 trillion barrels of usable oil—that’s approximately 66 years worth of fuel at current consumption rates.

Searching for alternatives

The problem is, by relying oil shale and other such sources of petroleum, we’re merely delaying the problem. If we don’t investigate other types of energy, we’ll have the same problem we do now in half a century. The point is, we can stretch our supply for a while longer, but we will eventually run out of oil.

What we can do is use this extra time to wean ourselves off oil. There are currently promising efforts underway to reduce or eliminate oil consumption. Auto companies are developing hybrid cars that run partly off rechargeable batteries, and a new fuel called “biodiesel”:http://www.actnow.com.au/Issues/Biodiesel.aspx is a product of renewable crops like corn.

Individual actions make a difference, too. Try cutting down on petrol consumption by using public transportation or carpooling with friends and coworkers. When possible, ride a bike or walk to your destination—you’ll be keeping not only the planet and the economy healthy, but yourself, too!

How do I know this?

Deffeyes, K S, Hubbert’s Peak, Current Events, http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html

Lynch, M C, CRYING WOLF: Warnings about oil supply, http://sepwww.stanford.edu/sep/jon/world-oil.dir/l...

May, S, Submission to the Senate Inquiry into Australia’s future oil supply and alternative transport fuel. http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/committee/rrat_ctte/o...

Wikipedia Online Encyclopaedia, Oil reserves, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Countrie...

Discuss Now

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Yuilden 08-Apr-2008

"The United States Energy Information Administration believes the world supply of oil shale to be 2.6 trillion barrels of usable oil—that’s approximately 66 years worth of fuel at current consumption rates."

Gah, that's not the point. The point of Peak is when it is half gone - ultimate recoverable reserves don't mean anything since you need to use more and more energy to get to it. Yes at the end of the oil age we'll probably still be using donkeys to get the last drops, is so not the point.

And while im at it - current consumption rates......Well that's a pointless measure. Each year we need to produce more to grow our economies, factoring increased consumption you could probably halve that number.

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Yuilden 08-Apr-2008

Damnit guys.

Really dammit. Your hearts are in the right place mostly but i don't think any of you aside from Dylan has a clue on what PO means. The green revolution - the thing that gave us excess food, wasnt green it was fossil fuels, PO really hits and we can expect mass starvation. It's not about the cars - its about everything, most all of your consumer items, power generation and worse still, the environmental consequences of switching to more polluting technologies just to mitigate it. Think crappier coals, oil shale, ethanol. As to when it happened i take the pessimistic version - plateau (peak) now, 2012 downward slope.


BottledGrace
Ethanol - wont work in all cars, germany just scrapped their plans after finding out upto a million cars wont run properly on it. It is a hugely environmental destructive thing (think clearing jungles for palm oil) it also only produces only a fraction of the energy you get from petrol. Hydrogen - unless it is produced at the car (which im skeptical of) you have a huge distribution/conversion problem, not to mention hydrogen as the lightest gas just 'escapes'.

Erin - from an economics standpoint.
Repeat after me - oil is the economy.
It underpins everything else, since the market should be an expression of doing work (ie energy) Peak oil means there is less energy to find alternative solutions. Thats the cosy view, the other one - it all goes too high, panic - stock market crash and riots all over the place (ie Burma) cos the plebs cant afford it or food and blame the gov. Hardly an ideal environment to find solutions.

Dylan -
Youre the sensible one.
On the production - you couldve said we are going through our reserves faster than we are finding them - we need to find a new North Sea every couple of years just to tread water. Right now we are at a plateau - but the 3rd world economies have mostly been priced out of the market - ie demand destruction.

As for the Arabs sitting sweet on pretty little reserves - Dont really buy it, Their large fields are drying up (read some Matt Simmons) but even if they werent - having these reserves wont do them any good as an oil weapon if it is too highly priced to buy. Again and again OPEC have stated it is in their interests to have oil at a realistic price.

Good thing you touched upon the environmental problems. Damned if we do, damned if we don't.

Kevin
If you were serious about the ACCC comment you understand nothing, even if you were being ironic ACCC is still irrelevant.

Tab2021.

Youre talking abiotic oil. Its bunk. Even if it wasn't bunk the replenishing is happening on a geologic scale to overcome PO we'd need to increase reserves.Gah - youve misrepresented the whole oil bourse too - petrodollar recycling works by countries buying US dollars to buy the oil. Simple - without this the US dollar would collapse in days, like you said US dollar is over leveraged, they're running a huge deficit because countries have to buy their worthless paper. Oil refineries being shut down - why else would this be? Oh i dont doubt there is some speculation going on driving up the prices but theres a transparency problem when the Sauds say no, we wont tell you what we have.

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tab2021 04-Jan-2008

The problem is oil reserves are "replenishing" There is a growing body of evidence to suggest Oil is a by product of the inner physics. But if this information became mainstream, the oil companies and the oil cartels would lose their power. The US economy is leverage to the point where the currency cannot decline or the country will collapse. Saddam Hussein was going to sell oil for EURO dollars, now Iran is about to do the same thing. This puts massive pressure on the US to keep US Dollars the "Oil currency". SO I ask you this question, if you wanted more money for your product, but had competition keeping it low, what do you do?
Eliminate the competition and tell the world your product is running out... Meanwhile OIl refineries are bing shut down and putting pressures on supply. low supply, more money!
a good book to read is "The Armed Madhouse" by Greg Palast. This books gives evidence of what I have said here.
But this peak oil, is only about creating manufactured fear to increase prices.

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Dylan 28-Jul-2007

Here's some food for thought.

In the book called 'The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era' by Jeremy Leggett claims that from an environmental standpoint we can't even afford to burn all of the oil that we can access without passing the tipping point of catastrophic climate change.

And he's a BP geologist turned environmentalist.

Many people don't join the dots between peak oil and climate change. Very scary stuff.

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Kev - Lives - Here 13-Apr-2007

Too bad there isn't an "ACCC" to regulate the world oil market! :)



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